---
name: yao-bayesian-skill
description: Convert uncertain real-world choices into an auditable Bayesian evidence-to-action report with priors, evidence grading, posterior update, action thresholds, sensitivity checks, multi-turn decision logs, and Markdown plus bilingual HTML output. Do not use for Bayes theorem tutoring, homework, generic brainstorming with no report, or final licensed medical, legal, or financial advice.
---

Yao Bayesian Skill

Use This Skill For

structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
export one synchronized Chinese-first markdown plus bilingual html report

Do Not Route Here

Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
final professional medical, legal, or investment advice

Default Workflow

Use references/intake-contract.md to convert the request into one structured decision brief.
If input is incomplete, read references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md; start with a weak prior and ask the minimum next questions.
Use references/evidence-prior-playbook.md to grade evidence and choose the lightest valid update path.
Run references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md; show only the 3-5 principles most relevant to this case.
Maintain the round log: user input, remaining gap, update path, probability change, and decision readiness.
Run scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py for canonical JSON or scripts/generate_report_bundle.py for markdown + html.
Finalize with references/decision-report-contract.md, references/report-export-pipeline.md, and references/sensitivity-and-safety.md.

Iteration And Implementation Constraints

When extending this skill: state assumptions before coding, keep the smallest valid workflow, touch only files required by the request, and define user-visible success checks before editing. Typical checks: incomplete input yields a weak prior plus follow-up questions; each round is logged; the report explains belief changes; HTML/Markdown still render the intended guidance.

Output Contract

Produce a decision report, not a formula dump; mark numbers as observed, estimated, or assumed.
Put the plain-language conclusion and action recommendation before technical sections.
Include weak evidence, dependence risk, sensitivity, prior-hygiene checks, and high-risk disclaimers when relevant.
For multi-turn use, log prior, posterior, readiness, gaps, and formula/update path for each round.
Reports default to Simplified Chinese; HTML also supports Chinese/English switching, sticky navigation, collapsible advanced sections, and top-right Print / Save as PDF.
Printing or saving HTML as PDF should expand folded sections first.

Reference Map

references/intake-contract.md: request-to-brief conversion
references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md: incomplete-input handling and iterative questioning
references/evidence-prior-playbook.md: evidence tiers, priors, update-path selection
references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md: default judgment priors for checking priors, evidence, and action intensity
references/decision-report-contract.md: required report sections and schema alignment
references/report-export-pipeline.md: automatic HTML/Markdown generation and bilingual HTML rules
references/sensitivity-and-safety.md: sensitivity analysis and high-risk disclaimers
scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py: canonical V0/V1 calculation
scripts/generate_report_bundle.py: Chinese-first Markdown plus bilingual HTML